The fiber vs fixed wireless debate is evolving faster than most ISPs anticipated. Fixed wireless access is no longer just the rural backup plan. Consolidation isn't slowing down. And the speed that sold internet service for the past decade is losing its relevance.
The broadband landscape is shifting faster than most ISPs anticipated. Fixed wireless access is no longer just the rural backup plan. Consolidation isn't slowing down. And the metrics that sold internet service for the past decade - download speeds and upload speeds - are losing their relevance.
If you're planning your 2026 strategy, here are six predictions based on what we're seeing in the market, hearing from our ISP clients, and tracking through industry signals.
Prediction 1: Fixed wireless access will reach 15–18% market share by year end
Fixed wireless access has grown faster than almost anyone predicted. According to Parks Associates, 12% of US internet households were using 5G or LTE home internet as of Q3 2025 - up from just 8% in 2023 and virtually zero in 2020. That's 18% growth in just the first half of 2025.
By the end of 2026, expect that trajectory to continue, reaching 15–18% of the broadband market.
The growth is continuing because basic broadband needs are already met for most households. Once you hit 100–300 Mbps download speed, less than 40 milliseconds latency, and consistent service, additional speed improvements deliver diminishing returns. Most people aren't noticing the difference between 300 Mbps and 1 Gbps in their daily use.
This creates an opening for fixed wireless access to compete on fundamentals that actually matter to carriers: deployment speed, capital efficiency, and rapid scalability.
The fiber vs fixed wireless deployment reality
Fibre infrastructure requires massive capital investment. You need long permitting timelines - sometimes years to get approval to dig. You need labour, which is in short supply. And you need actual fibre cable, which is also in short supply.
In contrast, fixed wireless access deployment happens in weeks. You need towers. You don't need permission to dig trenches under property owners' land. And you can test and grow with demand rather than risk overbuilding in markets that don't develop as expected.
The BEAD infrastructure programme will accelerate fixed wireless access adoption. With fibre shortages already constraining projects, and most available fibre being allocated to data centre buildout, BEAD deployments will increasingly lean on fixed wireless access as a practical alternative.
Where fiber still wins the fiber vs fixed wireless debate
To be clear: fibre remains the gold standard for high-demand households. If you have multiple people streaming 4K content, gaming competitively, or running bandwidth-intensive applications simultaneously, you want fibre. But that's not most households.
Fixed wireless access will continue to grow in rural deployments, markets where carriers are testing demand, and anywhere capital risk management matters more than maximum theoretical speed. The technology has matured to the point where it's a legitimate fibre alternative for most residential use cases.
The big three US carriers (AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile) now have a combined fixed wireless access base of 14.6 million connections as of Q3 2025, with capacity to serve up to 32 million subscribers according to New Street Research.
Prediction 2: Latency and reliability replace speed as marketing metrics
Speed has been the primary marketing metric for broadband service for as long as anyone can remember. That's changing.
Remember the Jake Paul vs Mike Tyson fight on Netflix? The streaming was a disaster. Laggy, buffering, and generally unwatchable for many viewers. People were furious.
This is a hard technical problem, and consumers are becoming increasingly sensitive to it. Live sports streaming - both traditional sports and e-sports - is driving new requirements that speed alone doesn't address.
We're already seeing ISPs respond. Low-latency connections marketed specifically to gamers. Quality of service guarantees. Uptime SLAs as differentiators. The conversation is shifting from "how fast" to "how consistent."
This shift benefits both fibre and fixed wireless access providers who can deliver reliable, low-latency connections. Authentication systems need to keep pace with these evolving requirements, ensuring seamless access across different network types and environments.
Prediction 3: M&A acceleration will reshape the competitive landscape
The broadband market is approaching saturation. When the pie stops growing, existing players fight for bigger slices. That means consolidation.
We're already seeing it happen. AT&T acquired Lumen's fibre assets in a deal worth close to $6 billion. Cox and Charter are working on a merger that will create a $34 billion combined company - large enough to require FCC approval.
And in the first two weeks of 2026, we've already seen a $1.5 billion deal between WideOpenWest (WOW!) and private equity.
Three drivers pushing consolidation
First, market maturity. When growth slows, consolidation follows. This is economics 101.
Second, massive infrastructure investment requirements. Again, building out network infrastructure - whether fibre or fixed wireless access - requires enormous capital. Multi-site network designs become more complex and expensive as coverage expands.
Third,
BEAD infrastructure funding creates opportunities for scaled
deployments but requires capital that smaller players often lack.
If you're a mid-size ISP, 2026 is the year to decide: partner, grow through acquisition, or prepare to be acquired.
Prediction 4: Fixed-mobile convergence will progress (slowly and painfully)
Fixed-mobile convergence shows up in the top three topics at every major industry conference. Carriers are explicitly prioritising it. AT&T and Verizon are heavily focused on selling fibre and mobile bundles - and increasingly, fixed wireless access and mobile bundles.
The business case is obvious. The execution is tough.
Business obstacles
Broadband, fixed wireless access, and mobile are typically separate business units - often through acquisitions or historical structure. Getting these units to work together in large organisations is difficult.
If you've ever worked in a large company, you know that cross-silo collaboration is painful. Now imagine trying to merge organisations with different cultures, different incentives, and different technical stacks.
Technical obstacles
The technical challenges are even more fundamental. 5G mobile uses completely different standards and protocols than Wi-Fi or fixed wireless access technologies. When a user moves from their home Wi-Fi to their car and onto 5G, their device needs to switch between different technology stacks.
Standards bodies are working on this. We're involved with IETF, Wi-Fi Alliance, and Wireless Broadband Alliance on convergence challenges. The IEEE is another relevant body that we're following.
But this is a years-long project. Progress will be steady but slow.
For ISPs planning authentication infrastructure across fibre, fixed wireless access, and mobile networks, designing for multiple access technologies is essential.
Prediction 5: ISP-in-a-box becomes a real revenue stream
Here's a prediction that might surprise you: telecoms will start offering productised "ISP in a box" services as a significant revenue stream.
The business case is straightforward. The retail broadband market is nearing saturation. Carriers need new revenue streams. Wholesale B2B models offer faster revenue realisation than acquiring retail customers one at a time.
Who's already doing it
Nokia already markets a "network in a box" for rural broadband using fixed wireless access technology. AT&T and Gigapower have their Wholesale Open Access fibre platform.
But right now, these are mostly one-off arrangements requiring complex negotiations. The opportunity is to productise it. Make it a turnkey solution where anyone wanting to start an ISP can sign up for a package, have it operational in two weeks, and start serving customers with either fibre or fixed wireless access.
This isn't easy to execute because of the technical challenges. But the business opportunity is compelling enough that we expect to see more carriers move in this direction.
Prediction 6: AI infrastructure demands will reshape fiber allocation
Here's my wildcard prediction: AI infrastructure buildout will consume available fibre in ways that affect ISP planning and accelerate fixed wireless access adoption.
Data centres are being built out at an unprecedented pace to support AI training and inference. These facilities require massive amounts of fibre connectivity. For ISPs, this creates competition for physical infrastructure - making fixed wireless access an increasingly attractive alternative for residential deployments.
The AI landscape (briefly)
Two quick predictions on the AI space itself, because they have infrastructure implications:
- Meta will emerge as an AI leader. Why? 40% of the global population uses a Meta platform daily. That's over 3 billion people - the largest data token pool available to any AI company. Their open source Llama strategy drives adoption. And unlike OpenAI and Anthropic, Meta has actual revenue to fund massive AI investments.
- Google will beat OpenAI in the search-with-AI race. OpenAI is trying to become Google before Google becomes OpenAI, but Google has lower friction (existing user behaviour), custom chips, actual revenue, and embedded muscle memory. People already type questions into Google's search bar.
What this means for ISPs
The network demand reality: AI training, inference, and edge computing all increase bandwidth requirements. And as AI services become more prevalent, advertising is following (transparency around those ads remains to be seen).
For ISPs, the practical impact is that fibre allocation decisions are becoming more complex. Data centre demands compete with BEAD projects and retail expansion. This makes fixed wireless access not just a rural solution, but a strategic tool for managing capital deployment across different market segments.
What these predictions mean for network authentication
As ISPs navigate these shifts - deploying fixed wireless access alongside fibre, managing convergence challenges, and scaling for growth - authentication infrastructure becomes more critical.
You need authentication systems that work across fixed wireless access, fibre, and mobile. You need infrastructure that scales with rapid user growth. You need monitoring and diagnostics that work across complex, distributed networks.
If you're planning your authentication strategy for convergence and growth, our ISP design best practices might be helpful.
Conclusion
The fiber vs fixed wireless debate isn't binary. Both have roles in the 2026 broadband landscape. Fixed wireless access will continue rapid growth as a practical alternative for most households. Fibre will remain essential for high-demand users and as backbone infrastructure.
But the bigger shifts - convergence, consolidation, changing metrics, wholesale models, and AI infrastructure demands - will shape ISP strategy more than any single technology choice.
Need help?
InkBridge Networks has been at the forefront of network infrastructure for over two decades, tackling complex challenges across various protocols. Our team of seasoned experts has encountered and solved nearly every conceivable network access issue. For network authentication built on 25 years of expertise rather than statistical guesses, get in touch.
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